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——《习近平谈治国理政》第三卷学习思考
(中国现代国际关系研究院世界政治所助理研究员 王磊)
China Will Build a Better World During the “14th Five-Year” Plan Period
——Thoughts upon Studying Xi Jinping: The Governance of China (Volume III)
(Wang Lei, Research Assistant, Institute of World Politics Studies of China Institutes of Contemporary International Relations)
《习近平谈治国理政》第三卷生动记录了中共十九大以来以习近平同志为核心的党中央,团结带领中国人民立足“两个大局”、推进“两个革命”、全面建成小康社会的伟大实践,生动展示了马克思主义中国化的最新成果。2020年是中国全面建成小康社会目标实现之年,是全面打赢脱贫攻坚战收官之年。在这样一个时间节点,召开中共十九届五中全会,研究“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标的建议,有着特殊重要意义。
It is profoundly recorded in the third volume of Xi Jinping: The Governance of China that, since the 19th National Congress of CPC, the Party Central Committee with Comrade Xi Jinping as the core has united and led the Chinese people to consider “two major situations”, promote “two revolutions”, and complete the great practice of building of a moderately prosperous society in all respects. It is a vivid presentation of the latest achievements in adapting Marxism to the Chinese context. 2020 is the year in which China realizes its goal of building a moderately prosperous society and wins the battle against poverty in all-round way. At such a time node, it is of special significance to hold the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee to assess proposals for formulating the 14th Five-Year Plan and the Long-Range Objectives Through the Year 2035.
中共十九届五中全会提出了到2035年基本实现社会主义现代化的远景目标,提出了“十四五”时期经济社会发展的主要目标,擘画了全国努力奋斗的新蓝图。“十四五”时期,世界百年大变局加速演进,中华民族伟大复兴稳步推进,中国对内以推进社会主义现代化为目标,对外以构建人类命运共同体为目标,国内与国际两个大局互动更为紧密,中国的发展将为世界注入更多“光和亮”。
At the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee, a new blueprint for national efforts has been mapped out with the proposal of a set of long-range objectives for China socialist modernization which should be substantially achieved by 2035 and that of major economic and social development targets during the 14th Five-Year Plan period. It has been predicted that during the 14th Five-year Plan period, the unprecedented great changes that the world is undergoing in a century is evolving in a rapid pace. And the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation is proceeding steadily. China’s internal target is to promote socialist modernization and its external goal is to build a community with a shared future for mankind. The domestic and international situations will interact more closely. And China’s development will bring more “energy and contribution” to the world.
一、“十四五”规划将在百年大变局中全面展开
中国制定实施“十四五”规划,是立足百年大变局发展,立足国际秩序转型重塑,统筹全局、着眼未来作出的重大战略部署。百年大变局,既是世界之变,也有中国之变,二者相互叠加、相互影响、相互促进。随着“十四五”规划的全面展开,中国的未来发展必将对世界产生更大影响。
第一,“十四五”规划立足百年大变局。当今世界,系统性危机激荡起伏,国际权力格局东升西降,大国关系分化重组,构成了中国制定实施“十四五”规划的主要国际背景,中共十九届五中全会公报强调指出,“全党要统筹中华民族伟大复兴战略全局和世界百年未有之大变局,深刻认识我国社会主要矛盾变化带来的新特征新要求,深刻认识错综复杂的国际环境带来的新矛盾新挑战。”世界大变局的根本动力和内在规律,源自各国经济政治发展不平衡。正是经济和技术的发展驱动世界变革,影响社会结构、政治制度、军事力量与大国地位的变化。“十四五”时期,“一超多强”格局将进入多极化新阶段,中国发展持续向好、国力持续上升的态势为世界所共睹。
第二,“十四五”规划立足国际秩序深刻转型重塑。二战结束以来,所谓“自由主义”秩序经受住冷战并在冷战后扩及全球,如今遭受9·11事件、国际金融危机、新冠疫情等多次重大冲击,已濒于崩溃。一是国际政治秩序面临大变革,当前以联合国为核心的国际体系被某些大国边缘化、政治化、工具化,其权威下降、效力不足,世卫组织、联合国人权理事会等机构各方对立严重,功能失调。二是国际经济秩序面临大调整,世界生产、贸易、投资体系面临重塑,产业链、供应链因疫情加速调整,贸易规则及WTO改革愈加迫切,资本流动新壁垒增多增高,区域经济合作异军突起,,主要依靠本国、双边和区域合作等“自力更生”的新局面不断涌现。三是世界政治思潮转向,所谓“华盛顿共识”已经解体,西方的自由民主模式吸引力下降,多种思潮并起,强政府理念广受欢迎。美外交政策专家罗伯特·卡普兰称,在后疫情世界,更将出现一种强化政府角色的新趋势。
I. The 14th Five-Year Plan is going to be carried out in an all-round way against the background of unprecedented great changes in a century
Based on the evolution of the unprecedented great changes in a century and the transformation and remodeling of the international order, China’s formulation and implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan is an important strategic deployment that plans the overall situation and eyes on the future. The great changes in a century occur not only in the world, but also in China. They are cross-overlapped, mutual influenced, and mutual promoted. With the full deployment of the 14th Five-Year Plan, China’s future development will certainly have more influence on the world.
First, the 14th Five-Year Plan is proposed on the basis of the great changes in a century. In today’s world, systemic crises are in dramatic rise and fall, the trend of global power structure presents a rise in the East and a descend in the West, and the relations between major powers have been divided and reorganized. These constitute the main international background for China to formulate and implement the 14th Five-Year Plan. The communique of the fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee stressed that “the whole Party should coordinate the overall strategic situation of the great rejuvenation of the Chinese nation and the unprecedented great changes in a century of the world. Meanwhile, awareness must be raised about the new features and requirements brought about by the changing major contradictions in Chinese society, the new conflicts and challenges brought by the complex international environment.” The fundamental driving force and inner law of the great changes of the world originate from the unbalanced economic and political development between and among countries. It is the development of economy and technology that drives the changes in the world and affects the changes of social structure, political system, military power and the status of major powers. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, the international uni-multipolarity model will evolve into a new stage of multi-polarization. The trend of China’s continuous development and rising national strength will be universally witnessed by the world.
Secondly, the 14th Five-Year Plan is proposed on the basis of current international order which is undergoing profound transformation and remodeling. Since the end of World War II, the so-called “liberal” international order has gone through the period of the Cold War, and spread throughout the world. Nowadays, it is on the verge of collapse after suffering several major shocks such as the 9/11 attacks, the international financial crisis and the COVID-19 pandemic. First, the international political order is facing great changes. At present, the UN-centered international system is marginalized, politicized and instrumentalized by some major powers with its authority declining and effectiveness insufficient. In its institutions such as the WHO, the United Nations Human Rights Council, different sides are in serious opposition leading to disfunction. Second, the international economic order is facing profound adjustments. The production, trade and investment systems in the world are going to be reconstructed. The industry chain and the supply chain have been adjusted rapidly due to the pandemic. It is of more urgency to reform current trade rules as well as WTO. New barriers to capital flow have increased. Regional economic cooperation has sprung up. New scenarios of “self-reliance” such as relying mainly on domestic, bilateral and regional cooperation, are emerging. Third, the world political thought is turning to another orientation. The so-called “Washington Consensus” has disintegrated. The liberal and democratic model boasted by the West has been losing its attraction. A variety of trends of thought have been emerging and the idea of strong government is widely welcomed. Robert Kaplan, a US foreign policy expert, said that in the post-pandemic world, there will be a new trend to strengthen the role of the government.
二、中国在世界中的新定位
“十四五”时期,中国身处百年大变局,走近世界舞台中央,大国地位、责任、角色更重。中国将更好发挥“世界和平的建设者、全球发展的动力源、国际秩序的稳定器” 作用,形成中国与世界关系的新框架。
第一,做世界和平的建设者。中国深刻认识到,经济和科技是决定当代大国发展进步的胜负手,国家兴旺发达的关键在于“办好自己的事”。这一认识既有中国历史上一直重视“修内政”的文化基因表达,也是中国深刻总结世界近现代国家发展规律得出的基本结论。一方面,中国矢志不渝坚持和平发展,中国的发展已经用事实证明,通过和平手段可以实现发展崛起。另一方面,中国崛起也能更好维护世界和平,建设性介入全球热点冲突地区和问题,为世界和平与发展贡献更多中国智慧、中国力量和中国方案。
第二,做全球发展的动力源。其一,中国的发展是世界的机遇,中国已多年担当世界经济增长的主要引擎,2013-2018年平均贡献率超过28%。“十四五”时期,中国仍有望保持世界经济增长的主要动力源地位,一个增长质量更好的中国,对世界经济发展是长期利好。麦肯锡全球研究院的报告认为,到2040年,中国和世界经济融合有望创造22万亿至37万亿美元的经济价值。其二,中国全方位扩大开放,将为各国分享“中国红利”创造更多机会。中国坚持奉行互利共赢的开放战略,实现更大力度、更高水平的对外开放,不断改善营商环境, 将成为世界工厂、全球市场以及国际的主要资本来源之一。其三,中国发展为其他发展中国家提供经验和借鉴。中国开辟了一条现代化新路径,但中国坚持不干涉他国内政,不输出模式,将通过深化中外治国理政经验交流,共享发展经验。
第三,做国际秩序的稳定器。国际力量的对比变化决定了旧有国际秩序的转型重塑不可避免,中国既要坚持捍卫其合理部分,又要积极支持引导革新其不合理部分。总体上,中国仍要做国际秩序的稳定之锚,降低其转型过程中的不确定性、不稳定性给世界带来的冲击。一方面,中国坚持多边主义,坚决捍卫联合国的应有权威,维护世贸组织、世卫组织等既有多边框架。另一方面,中国也携手国际社会,推动现有多边治理体系改革完善,并搭建和运作政治、经济、安全、人文等领域多边对话和合作的新平台新机制。
II. China’s new position in the world
During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, China is moving closer to the center stage of the world in the context of the unprecedented great changes in a century of the world. In addition, as a major power, China is going to take more responsibilities. China will better play its role as the “builder of world peace, contributor to global development and upholder of international order”, so as to form a new framework of the relations with the world.
Firstly, China will always be the builder of world peace. China has been profoundly aware that economy and science and technology are the deciding factors of the development and progress of contemporary major countries, and “running its own business well” is the key to a country’s prosperity. This understanding has contained not only the cultural gene of China which pays more attention on “being diligent in internal affairs”, but also the basic conclusion drawn by the profound summary of the development law of modern countries in the world. On the one hand, China is dedicated to peaceful development. It has been proved that China can achieve development and rising by peaceful means. On the other hand, by China’s rising, Chinese people can also safeguard world peace better, constructively intervene in global hot conflict areas and issues, and contribute more Chinese wisdom, strength and proposals to world peace and development.
Secondly, China will be the contributor to global development. First, China’s development is an opportunity for the world. For many years China has been played the role of the main engine of world economic growth. During the period of 2013-2018, its average contribution rate was over 28%. It is expected that China can still hold on to its position as the main contributor of world economic growth. A better growth of China is good for the world economic development in the long run. According to the report issued by McKinsey Global Institute, it is expected that China’s economic integration into the world is going to create $22 trillion to $37 trillion in economic value by 2040. Second, China’s all-round opening-up will create more opportunities for all countries to share the “China dividend”. China continues to pursue a mutually beneficial strategy of opening up. This will promote opening up to an even greater input and higher level. With the continuous improvement of business environment, China will become one of the major sources of capital for the world’s factories, global markets and other aspects of the world. Third, China’s development provides experience and reference for other developing countries. China has paved a new path of modernization, but China adheres to the principle of non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries and does not seek to export our model of development. China will share its development experience through deepening the exchange of governance experience with other countries.
Thirdly, China will be the upholder of international order. The changes in the international balance of powers have determined that it is inevitable for the old international order to be transformed and reconstructed. China should not only insist on defending the reasonable part, but also actively support and guide the reformation of the unreasonable part. On the whole, China will still be an anchor that helps stabilize the international order to reduce the impact of uncertainty and instability on the world in the process of its transformation. On the one hand, China adheres to multilateralism, firmly upholds the due authority of the United Nations and maintains the existing multilateral frameworks such as WTO, WHO, etc. On the other hand, China cooperates with the international community to promote the reform and improvement of the existing multilateral governance system, and to build and operate a new platform and mechanism for multilateral dialogue and cooperation in the fields of politics, economy, security, humanities and so on.
三、中国建设美好世界的愿景
中共十九届五中全会强调,实现“十四五”规划和2035年远景目标,“要高举和平、发展、合作、共赢旗帜,积极营造良好外部环境,推动构建新型国际关系和人类命运共同体。”构建人类命运共同体,其核心内涵是“建设持久和平、普遍安全、共同繁荣、开放包容、清洁美丽的世界”。未来一段时期,中国将在人类命运共同体的思想指引下,建设更加美好的世界。
首先,中国主张建设“和而不同,和平共存”的世界。中国反复申明不同社会制度、不同意识形态、不同历史文明、不同发展水平的国家,应当在国际活动中目标一致、利益共生、权利共享、责任共担。拓展全球伙伴关系是处理中国与世界关系的重要方向,中国努力构建总体稳定、均衡发展的大国关系框架,深化同周边国家关系,稳定周边、建设周边,团结广大发展中国家,深化中非命运共同体建设,扩大中拉、中阿等地区合作。
其次,中国主张建设自身发展与共同发展辩证统一的世界。百年大变局中,万变不离其宗。中国一是稳步提升经济与科技水平,不断增强综合国力,“坚持创新在现代化建设全局中的核心地位,把科技自立自强作为国家发展的战略支撑”。二是全面实现国家治理体系和治理能力现代化,“基本建成法治国家、法治政府、法治社会”。在这两方面工作的基础上,中国坚持与各国加强互利合作,促进交流互鉴,弥合发展鸿沟,走出一条公平、开放、全面、创新的共同发展之路。
再次,中国主张建设自身贡献与共同责任辩证统一的世界。“十四五”时期,随着国力进一步增强,中国的国际贡献也将进一步增大。中国将继续增加对国际组织和国际安全的投入和参与,提供更多全球性和地区性公共产品,特别是“一带一路”建设将更加行稳致远。 同时,中国倡导其他国家也遵守国际义务,承担应有的国际责任,为国际社会的和平与发展作出贡献。
最后,中国主张建设国际秩序更加公正合理的世界。中国提出总结历史经验与教训,加强协调,完善治理,推动开放、包容、普惠、平衡、共赢的新型经济全球化。中国坚定维护以联合国为核心的国际秩序,维护国际法和国际关系基本准则,同时也主张有序革新使之适应国际力量变化的新现实,推动符合广大发展中国家利益诉求的国际体系改革。中国秉持“共商共建共享”原则,积极推动全球治理体系朝着更加公正合理方向发展,推动G20、金砖国家合作机制等为完善全球治理发挥更大作用。
总之,随着“十四五”规划的全面展开,不断崛起的中国将进一步“为人民谋幸福,为民族谋复兴,为世界谋和平”,中国的发展与世界的发展也将更加“各美其美、美美与共”,“美好中国”与“美好世界”同样会愈发相得益彰、相互成就。
III. China’s vision of building a better world
The fifth plenary session of the 19th CPC Central Committee stressed that, in order to achieve the goals set in the 14th Five-Year Plan and the long-range objectives through the year 2035, “China will hold high the banner of peace, development, cooperation, and mutual benefit, and strive to create a favorable external environment and promote the building of a new type of international relations and a community with a shared future for humanity.” The core connotation of building a community with a shared future for mankind is to “build an open, inclusive, clean and beautiful world that enjoys lasting peace, universal security and common prosperity.” For the coming period, China will build a better world under the ideological guidance of a community of shared future for mankind.
First of all, China stands for building a world of “harmony with difference, peaceful coexistence”. China has repeatedly stated that countries with different social systems, different ideologies, different historical civilizations and different levels of development should have the same goals, interconnected interests, shared rights and responsibilities in international activities. Expanding global partnership is an important factor in coordinating China’s relations with the world. In this effort, China works to build a framework for major country relations featuring overall stability and balanced development, deepens relations with neighboring countries in accordance with the principle of stability and mutual benefit and strengthens solidarity and cooperation with other developing countries. In addition, China is committed to working with Africa for an even stronger China-Africa community with a shared future and pursuing more cooperation with Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) and other areas.
Secondly, China insists on building a world of dialectical unity between self-development and common development. Though we are witnessing the unprecedented changes in a century, the essence remains unchanged. On the one hand, China has steadily enhanced the development level of economy and science and technology, and continuously strengthened its national power, “adhering to the core position of innovation in the overall modernization drive, and taking self-reliance in science and technology as the strategic support for national development”. On the other hand, the modernization of China’s system and capacity for governance will be basically achieved. “The rule of law for the country, the government, and society will be basically in place”. On the basis of these two aspects, China insists on strengthening mutually beneficial cooperation with other countries, promoting exchanges and learning from each other, bridging the development gap, and embarking on a fair, open, comprehensive and innovative road of common development.
Thirdly, China insists on building a world of dialectical unity of its own contribution and common responsibility. During the 14th Five-Year Plan period, with the further enhancement of China’s national power, China’s international contribution will further increase. China will continue to increase its investment and participation in international organizations and international security, will provide more global and regional public goods, and will especially make steady progress in the Belt and Road construction. At the same time, China calls for other countries to abide by their international obligations, to take on their proper international responsibilities and contribute to the peace and development of the international community.
Finally, China stands for building a world with a more just and equitable international order. China proposes to summarize historical experience and lessons, strengthen coordination, improve governance, and help make economic globalization more open, inclusive, balanced and beneficial for all. China firmly supports the UN-centered international order, follows international law and the basic norms of international relations. At the same time, China also stands for orderly innovation to adapt it to the new reality of changes in international forces, and promotes the reform of the international system in the interests and concerns of developing countries. China adheres to the principle of “extensive consultation, joint contribution and shared benefits”, actively promotes the development of global governance system in a more just and equitable direction, and takes an active part in cooperation at G20, BRICS, etc. for playing a greater role in improving global governance.
In short, with the full implementation of the 14th Five-Year Plan, a rising China will further “seek happiness for the people, seek rejuvenation for the nation and seek peace for the world”. The world will develop into “a world in which countries treasure their own distinct heritages, appreciate other cultures and promote shared prosperity”. And “a better China” and “a better world” will complement each other for a win-win future.