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“一带一路”问与答(一)——“一带一路”与地缘政治

2025-01-07当代中国与世界研究院

1.有观点称,中方希望将“一带一路”嵌入全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议和全球文明倡议中,力图打造一个“全球南方”国家影响力更强的世界秩序,对抗以美西方为主导的世界秩序。请问对此有何评价?

此番言论有制造阵营对立,破坏全球化进程之嫌。“一带一路”与三大全球倡议参与对象是所有主权国家,而非限定在发展中国家。中国政府从未规定过“一带一路”与三大全球倡议的参与国类型,并未将其打造成只有发展中国家才能加入的南方阵营。无论是共建“一带一路”倡议,还是全球发展倡议、全球安全倡议、全球文明倡议,其目的都是通过团结、吸纳更多国家参与合作,为提升全球治理效能、推动构建人类命运共同体提供依托。“一带一路”与三大全球倡议也为发达国家提供了参与发展、安全、文明等全球议题的新路径,为南北合作提供了新平台。“三大倡议”在安全、发展、文明三个维度上,为推动完善全球治理作出重要贡献,引领世界朝着更加公平、公正、合理、包容的方向发展。

2.有分析称,乌克兰危机加快了北约“全球化”和亚洲“北约化”的进程。北约国家与美国的亚洲盟国紧密合作,从东西两个方向对“一带一路”构成了巨大压力。请问如何看待乌克兰危机对“一带一路”的影响?

乌克兰危机对现有国际秩序和地缘政治构成了重大挑战,也为“一带一路”推进带来诸多不利因素,比如中欧班列部分线路受到冲击、冲突地区沿线货源出现萎缩等。

但在风险和挑战下仍存机遇。一是中国和俄罗斯以及欧亚地区的贸易持续恢复。2022年中国同俄罗斯、白俄罗斯、中亚五国的进出口贸易额分别同比增长29.3%、33%、45.4%。中欧班列北线虽受到冲击,但南线快速增长,危机爆发后南线开行列次仍同比增长9%。此外,美欧对俄罗斯的金融战争,也推动了中国同俄罗斯贸易总额的迅速提高以及本币结算规模的快速增长。二是中欧新通道建设加速推进。习近平主席在第三届“一带一路”国际合作高峰论坛上提出,中方将参与跨里海国际运输走廊建设,该走廊可成为原有线路的有力补充,同时因新线路覆盖了过去中欧班列很少经由的国家和地区,还可为国内和国际企业开辟新的贸易市场。

面对乌克兰危机持续复杂演进,中国秉承“尊重各国主权、摒弃冷战思维”的主张,在推动停火止战、启动和谈与人道危机解决层面持续作出积极努力。“一带一路”的稳步推进与高质量共建,也必将为后乌克兰危机时代的战略风险管控、产业链供应链安全维护以及战后重建发挥重要作用,推动国际秩序朝着更有利于和平与发展的方向前进,朝着更有利于构建人类命运共同体的方向前进。

3.“一带一路”倡议被指更受政治动机驱使,表现在中方贷款并未发放到经济上最合理、最具可持续性的项目上,中方投资援助并非关注沿线国民生福祉,只看重如何借此为中国谋取最大利益。请问如何评价相关观点?

消除极端贫困,关心最不发达国家的脱贫和民生福祉,加强在气候变化、环境保护和可持续发展方面的国际合作,共同应对全球性的挑战,“不让任何一个国家”掉队,既是联合国《2030年可持续发展议程》(简称“2030年议程”)的重要内容,也是一个负责任大国义不容辞的责任,更是中国推动共建“一带一路”的道义担当。中国推动共建“一带一路”倡议,就是落实联合国2030年议程的务实举措。十年来,共建“一带一路”倡议拉动近万亿美元投资,形成3000多个合作项目,为沿线国家创造42万个工作岗位,让将近4000万人摆脱贫困,给沿线国家和人民带来了巨大的实惠。

中方的投资援助对沿线国民福祉的改善有目共睹。从干净的自来水和宽敞舒适的住房,从公路桥梁等交通基础设施,到医院学校等公共服务设施,从职业教育到专业技术培训,中方投资援助的项目为当地居民提高工作技能、增加收入和改善生活水平提供了巨大的支持,有力地增进了共建国家的民生福祉,大大提升了当地民众的生活幸福指数。

当前,在中国共产党的坚强领导下,中国已彻底消除了绝对贫困,全面建成了小康社会,实现了所有贫困人口全面脱贫的历史性目标。中国非常乐意与发展中国家一道分享中国的发展机遇,秉持共商共建共享的基本原则,持续推动共建“一带一路”这一开放的合作平台,把自身发展和共建国共同发展紧密联系起来,把中国梦和共建国人民过上美好生活的梦想紧密联系起来,携手走出一条共同发展的康庄大道。

4.在上合组织峰会发布的《新德里宣言》中,唯有印度不支持共建“一带一路”倡议,有分析称这与中巴经济走廊“侵犯”印度的领土完整和主权有关,共建“一带一路”倡议加剧了地缘冲突。请问中方对此有何回应?

共建“一带一路”在本质上是旨在促进国际合作的发展倡议,没有地缘政治动机,也不设置地缘政治议程。

中巴在有关地区开展合作,纯粹是出于促进当地的经济社会发展的目的,不针对任何第三方,也不会影响各方对有关问题的立场。克什米尔问题是印巴两国间的历史遗留问题,应根据《联合国宪章》、安理会决议和有关双边协定规定,以和平方式妥善解决。中方在此问题上的立场是一贯的、明确的。中方主张有关方面应保持克制,慎重行事,尤其是避免采取单边行动造成局势复杂化,呼吁印巴双方通过对话协商和平解决有关争议,维护地区的和平稳定。

截至2023年6月,中国已经同152个国家和32个国际组织签署了200余份共建“一带一路”合作文件,共建“一带一路”的大家庭不断扩大。借助共建“一带一路”国际合作平台,共建国家共商发展大计、共建发展项目、共享发展成果,为和平与发展的全人类共同事业注入了正能量、强心剂。反观一些国家和国际组织,抱持浓厚的冷战思维和意识形态偏见,一边蓄意挑起地缘冲突、加剧地区形势紧张、激化政治对立,另一边又以地缘政治动机和阵营对抗思维恶意揣测共建“一带一路”的发展议程。谁在促进和平与发展,谁在引致战争与冲突,国际社会一目了然。

5.近期,中国海军在“一带一路”沿线国尼日利亚拉各斯港停泊,有报道称中方有在非洲建立第二个军事基地的可能性。请问对此有何回应?中方是否会利用“一带一路”来实现军事目的?

2023年7月2日,中国海军第43批护航编队抵达尼日利亚拉各斯,开始为期5天的友好访问。尼日利亚军方在官方声明中表示,中国海军此次访问旨在加强尼日利亚和中国之间的双边关系。在此之前,中国海军第43批护航编队曾对加纳进行过为期4天的友好访问。此前中国海军护航编队在亚丁湾执行任务期间,也曾到访其他国家执行护航之外的任务。相关访问均在加强和深化双边友谊中发挥了积极作用。

近些年,美西方舆论不断就相关话题进行炒作,意在阻碍中国和其他国家建立非传统安全领域的合作。不过国际社会已经清楚地看到,中国首个海外基地吉布提基地仅为训练保障基地,目的是维护亚丁湾及红海相关海域区域安全,同时为在非洲执行任务的维和部队提供训练基地,其作用是维护地区的和平与稳定,并未改变地区局势和军事力量的平衡。

中国不谋求地区事务主导权,不谋求势力范围,不会干涉别国内政。中方提出“一带一路”合作倡议,是在寻求共同发展的基础上,为周边国家和区域合作提供更多的公共产品,为促进各国经济繁荣与区域经济发展作出自己的贡献。

6.中国被指正利用黑客攻击共建“一带一路”国家的政府部门,以了解其贷款状况和债务偿还意图,请问对此有何回应? 

相关报道是一则别有用心并且彻头彻尾的假新闻。2023年5月25日,肯尼亚内政部常秘雷蒙德·奥莫洛对此已予以澄清,他认为这篇报道是受到资助的“政治宣传”,主要目的是攻击肯尼亚主权,破坏中肯关系。

非洲大部分债务来自西方机构。随着中国与非洲关系逐渐密切,西方国家开始开动强大的舆论机器造假,炒作所谓的“中国债务陷阱论”。事实上,中国对非洲的贷款占比和利率都比较低,非洲更多的债务则来自西方私人贷款机构。非洲国家借自西方私营金融机构的债务是中国的3倍,贷款利率是中国的2倍。世界银行统计报告显示,在非洲的整体外债中,多边金融机构和商业债权人所持债务占比近四分之三,是非洲债务大头。

中方高度重视并积极帮助非洲应对债务问题,在二十国集团缓债倡议当中,中国贡献的缓债额度高达63%。当中国同非洲国家签署缓债协议的时候,债权占比最大的西方国家一直处于缺位状态。中国对非洲的投资与融资是福祉。几十年间,中国对非洲提供的贷款是公开透明的,且多用于非洲的基础建设和民生保障。中国企业为非洲新增和升级铁路超过1万公里,桥梁近千座,还有大量医院和学校。

随着七国集团(G7)在全球政治和经济的影响力下滑,发展中国家寻求更多伙伴是必然的选项,不断崛起的“全球南方”越来越受其重视。但G7国家抱着零和博弈的心态,将非洲大陆当成话语权竞争的角力场,不断抹黑中国,挑拨中非关系。所谓“黑客攻击”就是其编造想象出来的又一则谎言。相反,美国才是监听全球、攻击全球的“黑客大本营”,在网络窃听监控方面投入了大量资金和人力资源,从竞争对手到盟友,美国对全球实施“无差别”监视监听,堪称全球最大的“监听帝国”。

1. Question: There are views that the Chinese side hopes to embed the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI) into the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, and the Global Civilization Initiative, thereby creating a world order with stronger influence from the Global South countries, countering the world order dominated by the U.S. and the West. What is your comment on this?

Answer: Such remarks are creating opposing camps and disrupting the process of globalization. The BRI and the three major global initiatives are open to all sovereign countries, not limited to developing ones. The Chinese government has never stipulated the type of participating countries for the BRI and the three major global initiatives, and has not made it an exclusive club for developing countries. Whether it is the BRI, the Global Development Initiative, the Global Security Initiative, or the Global Civilization Initiative, the goal is to unite and attract more countries to participate in cooperation, providing support for improving global governance efficiency and promoting the building of a community of shared future for mankind. The BRI and the three major global initiatives also provide developed countries with new paths to participate in global governance in areas such as development, security, and civilization, offering a new platform for North-South cooperation. The “Three Major Initiatives” have made significant contributions to improving global governance in the dimensions of security, development, and civilization, leading the world towards a more fair, just, reasonable, and inclusive direction.

2. Question: Some analysts believe that the Ukraine crisis has accelerated the “globalization” process of NATO and the “NATO-ization” of Asia. NATO members and the United States’ Asian allies are closely cooperating, exerting significant pressure on the Belt and Road from both the eastern and western directions. How do you view the impact of the Ukraine crisis on the BRI?

Answer: While the Ukraine crisis poses significant challenges to the existing international order and geopolitics, it also brings numerous adverse factors to the advancement of the BRI, such as disruptions to some routes of the China-Europe Railway Express and a decline in cargo sources along conflict-affected areas.

However, there are still opportunities amidst risks and challenges. First, trade between China and Russia as well as the Eurasian region continues to recover. In 2022, the import and export trade volume between China and Russia, Belarus, and the five Central Asian countries increased by 29.3%, 33%, and 45.4% year-on-year, respectively. Although the northern route of the China-Europe Railway Express was impacted, the trade through the southern route grew rapidly, with the number of trains on the southern route increasing by 9% year-on-year after the crisis broke out. In addition, the financial war waged by the US and Europe against Russia also boosted the total trade volume between China and Russia, and the rapid growth of local currency settlement. Second, the construction of new China-Europe corridors is accelerating. At the Third Belt and Road Forum for International Cooperation, President Xi Jinping proposed that the Chinese side would participate in the construction of the Trans-Caspian International Transport Corridor. This corridor can serve as a strong supplement to the existing routes. Additionally, since the new route covers countries and regions that the China-Europe Railway Express rarely passes through, it can open up new trade markets for domestic and international enterprises.

In the face of the ongoing complex evolution of the Ukraine crisis, China adheres to the principle of “respecting the sovereignty of all countries and rejecting the Cold War mentality”. China continues to make efforts in promoting ceasefire and peace talks, as well as in addressing humanitarian crises. In the post-Ukraine crisis era, the steady advancement and high-quality Belt and Road cooperation will undoubtedly play an important role in strategic risk management, maintenance of security of industrial and supply chains, and post-war reconstruction. It will promote the international order towards a direction more conducive to peace and development, and towards a direction more favorable to building a community of shared future for mankind.

3. Question: The BRI is accused of being driven more by political motives, manifested in the Chinese side’s loans not being allocated to the most economically reasonable and sustainable projects. It is also alleged that Chinese investments and aid are not focused on the welfare of the people along the route, but rather on how to maximize benefits for China. What is your comment on such views?

Answer: We should eliminate extreme poverty, care for the poverty alleviation and well-being of the least developed countries, and strengthen international cooperation in climate change, environmental protection, and sustainable development. We should also jointly address global challenges, leaving no country behind. Such are important contents of the United Nations 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development (referred to as the “2030 Agenda”), and are also the unshirkable responsibilities of China as a responsible power. Moreover, it is China’s moral responsibility to promote the joint construction of the Belt and Road. China’s promotion of the BRI is a pragmatic measure to implement the 2030 Agenda. Over the past decade, the BRI has driven nearly a trillion dollars of investment, formed over 3,000 cooperative projects, and created 420,000 jobs for countries along the route. It has lifted nearly 40 million people out of poverty, and brought enormous benefits to the countries and people along the route.

The improvement in the welfare of the people in the countries along the Belt and Road due to Chinese investment and aid is evident. From clean tap water and spacious and comfortable housing, to transportation infrastructure such as roads and bridges, to public service facilities such as hospitals and schools, from vocational education to professional technical training, Chinese investment and aid projects have provided tremendous support for local residents. People in these participating countries have thus improved their work skills, increased their income, and improved their living standards. There have also been significantly enhanced welfare and great improvement in the happiness level of the local people.

At present, under the strong leadership of the Communist Party of China, China has completely eradicated absolute poverty, fully built a moderately prosperous society, and achieved the historic goal of lifting all impoverished people out of poverty. China is more than willing to share its development opportunities with other developing countries. Adhering to the basic principles of extensive consultation, joint contribution, and shared benefits, it has continuously been promoting the BRI as an open cooperation platform, closely linking its own development with the common development of partner countries. It aligns the Chinese Dream with the aspirations of the people in participating countries for a better life, and works to jointly pave a broad path for common development.

4. Question: In the New Delhi Declaration issued at the SCO Summit, India was the only state that did not support the BRI. Some analysts believe that this is related to the China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which, according to India, “violated” India’s territorial integrity and sovereignty, and that the BRI has exacerbated geopolitical conflicts. What is the Chinese side’s response to this?

Answer: The essence of jointly building the Belt and Road is to promote international cooperation. It has no geopolitical motives and does not set a geopolitical agenda.

The cooperation between China and Pakistan in relevant regions is purely aimed at promoting local economic and social development. It is not directed against any third party and will not affect the positions of the parties on relevant issues. The Kashmir issue is a historical one between India and Pakistan. It should be properly resolved in a peaceful manner in accordance with the provisions of the United Nations Charter, the UN Security Council resolutions, and relevant bilateral agreements. The Chinese side’s position on this issue is consistent and clear. The Chinese side holds that relevant parties should exercise restraint and act prudently, especially avoiding unilateral actions that could complicate the situation. It calls on both India and Pakistan to resolve their disputes peacefully through dialogue and consultation, and to maintain regional peace and stability.

As of June 2023, China has signed over 200 cooperation documents on the Belt and Road with 152 countries and 32 international organizations, continuously expanding the Belt and Road family. By leveraging the international cooperation platform of jointly building the Belt and Road, participating countries discuss development plans, conduct development projects, and share development benefits, injecting positive energy and a strong impetus into the common cause of peace and development for all humanity. In contrast, some countries and international organizations, holding a strong Cold War mentality and ideological bias, deliberately provoke geopolitical conflicts, exacerbate regional tensions, and intensify political confrontations. Harboring geopolitical motives and bloc confrontation thinking, they have also maliciously speculated on the development agenda of jointly building the Belt and Road. It is clear to the international community who is promoting peace and development and who is causing wars and conflicts.

5. Question: Recently, the Chinese navy docked at Lagos Port in Nigeria, a country along the route of the Belt and Road. There are reports suggesting that the Chinese side might establish a second military base in Africa. What is your response to this? Will the Chinese side use the BRI to achieve military objectives?

Answer: On July 2, 2023, the 43rd escort fleet of the Chinese navy arrived in Lagos, Nigeria, for a five-day friendly visit. The Nigerian military stated in an official announcement that the visit by the Chinese navy aims to strengthen bilateral relations between Nigeria and China. Prior to this, the escort fleet had paid a friendly visit to Ghana for a period of 4 days. During their mission in the Gulf of Aden, the Chinese navy escort fleets also visited other countries to perform tasks beyond escort duties. These visits have played an active role in strengthening and deepening bilateral friendships.

In recent years, Western media have continuously hyped related topics, aiming to hinder the establishment of non-traditional security cooperation between China and other countries. However, the international community has clearly seen that China’s first overseas base in Djibouti is merely a training and support base, aimed at maintaining the security of the Gulf of Aden and the Red Sea regions, while providing a training base for peacekeeping forces performing missions in Africa. Its role is to maintain regional peace and stability, and it has not altered the regional situation or the balance of military power.

China does not seek to dominate regional affairs, nor does it seek spheres of influence. It will not interfere in the internal affairs of other countries. The Chinese side has proposed the BRI in order to, on the basis of seeking common development, offer more public goods to neighboring countries and regional cooperation, and contribute to the economic prosperity of various countries and regional economic development.

6. Question: China is accused of using hackers to attack government departments of BRI participating countries so as to understand their loan status and debt repayment intentions. What is your response to this? 

Answer: The related report is a malicious and completely false piece of news. On May 25, 2023, Raymond Omollo, Principal Secretary of the Ministry of Interior of Kenya, clarified this and considered the report to be funded “political propaganda” that is aimed primarily at attacking Kenya’s sovereignty and undermining China-Kenya relations.

Most of Africa’s debt comes from Western institutions. As the China-Africa relationship becomes closer, Western countries have started to mobilize their powerful media machinery to fabricate and hype the so-called “China debt trap”. In fact, China’s share of loans to Africa and the interest rates are relatively low, while more African debt comes from Western private lending institutions. The debt that African countries owe to Western private financial institutions triples what they owe to China, and the loan interest rates are twice as high as those from China. According to a World Bank statistical report, in Africa’s overall external debt, nearly three-quarters are held by multilateral financial institutions and commercial creditors, making up the majority of Africa’s debt.

The Chinese side attaches great importance to and actively assists Africa in addressing debt issues. Under the G20 Debt Service Suspension Initiative, China offered 63% of the total debt relief amount. When China signed debt relief agreements with African countries, Western countries with the largest share of the debt were notably absent. China’s investment and financing are beneficial to Africa. Over the decades, the loans provided by China to Africa have been open and transparent, mostly used for infrastructure and livelihood projects in the continent. Chinese enterprises have added and upgraded over 10,000 kilometers of railways, nearly a thousand bridges, and numerous hospitals and schools in Africa.

As the influence of the Group of Seven (G7) in global politics and economy declines, developing countries inevitably seek more partners, and the rising Global South is increasingly valued by them. However, G7 countries, with a zero-sum game mentality, treat the African continent as a battleground for discourse power competition. They continuously smear China and provocate China-Africa relations. The so-called “hacking attacks” are yet another fabricated lie. In contrast, the United States is the true “hacker headquarters” that conducts monitoring and cyber attacks globally. It invests heavily in funds and human resources in cyber eavesdropping and surveillance. The United States implements indiscriminate surveillance and monitoring on both competitors and allies around the globe, making it the largest “surveillance empire” in the world.